The Herman Trend Alert
February 2, 2022
Solving the Pilot Shortage
Within the next two decades, the Boeing company predicts that 600,000 new pilots will be needed. At the same time, by 2025, others forecast a global shortfall of at least 34,000 pilots. Other estimates are even worse. Back in the 1950s, when I first started flying, a cockpit crew consisted of two pilots, a radio operator, a navigator, and a flight engineer---five people, mostly men. With technological advances, for about the last 30 years, we now consider two pilots to be a full cockpit crew. One solution to this pilot shortfall could be a reduction in the number of pilots on some aircraft which could help reduce the impact of this deficit.
How It Would Be Possible
A few years ago, I forecasted that eventually, we will have pilotless commercial flights and sooner than that time, we will have automated cargo flights. The technology that allows autonomous drones to fly could easily be applied for larger craft. Throughout the years, we have seen technological advances in numerous areas, including radio communications, navigation systems and on-board monitoring equipment. These advances enabled the drop of the number the people in the cockpit to two---the current norm in commercial aviation.
Why Not One Pilot?
As I write this Trend Alert, many smaller and military aircraft have only a single pilot. I have been on many regional flights where there was a single person in the cockpit. For commercial aviation, flying with only a captain would be a significant change---both in responsibility for the pilot and for reduction in airline operating expenses.
Still Needed to Effect that Transition
There are two major ways this transition may be accomplished. First, the airlines could greatly increase automation in the cockpit, delegating more of the mundane tasks to computers. A second way would be to delegate the same tasks from the cockpit to the ground; thus, the lone onboard pilot would be a member of a "distributed crew." Due to our experience with drones, the later scenario seems much more likely and easier to implement. In fact, according to an airline pilot who flies Boeing 767 aircraft, you could already make the case for our being there.
Two Possible Scenarios
Proposed by NASA, one scenario features the pilot in the cockpit supported by a "super dispatcher" on the ground. This grounded individual would be a trained pilot who could oversee several flights at once and even fully control the plane remotely if needed. In the other scenario, like what happens in seaports, a trained "harbor pilot," specializing in a specific airport, would support multiple aircraft arriving and departing from a particular airport.
Testing NASA's Scenario
NASA has conducted simulations for these arrangements by having real pilots in separate rooms---before presenting them with difficult flight conditions on a Boeing 737 simulator. All the pilot participants landed their planes safely; however, the study showed "significant increases in workload" compared to regular two-crew operations, resulting in "subjective assessments of safety and performance being significantly degraded." (These perceptions might change when there is greater familiarity with the new system.) Moreover, the absence of visual cues from the other pilot sometimes resulted in misunderstanding or uncertainty about which tasks had been completed.
Another Solution: Subsidize Training for More Pilots
Before 1980, the principal source for commercial pilots was the military. However, since that time fewer and fewer pilots are coming from the military and the cost of pilot training is not inexpensive. In fact, a couple of years ago, the expense of an education at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University was between $91,924 and $111,924 USD for a four-year aviation degree and a restricted air transport pilot certificate. One solution to student funding without racking up debt, is a model called ISA (Income Sharing Agreement) In this case, an ISA would be a contract between the airline and the student. While the airline pays the costs of qualification, for a specified period, the student is expected to pay back the loan with a percentage of future wages. One example might be a contract in which United Airlines agreed to pay $110,000 USD for a student's degree and flight training in exchange for 6.7 percent of the graduate pilot's future wages for 10 years. The arrangement would only be in effect if (and when) the student is earning more than $50,000 USD, not to exceed 200 percent of the cost of training. When executed properly, this arrangement will eliminate the pilot shortage by attracting significantly more aspiring pilots while producing billions of dollars for the airlines.
Two Potential Hurdles
The pilots themselves may revolt, refusing to work with the new system, though the greater obstacle is likely to be the passengers. As a very frequent flyer, this system would not bother me---until the first time that the lack of a second pilot was responsible for a crash. However, with the advancing drone technologies, I am guessing that the pilot dispatcher or the harbor pilot would be fully capable of landing the plane with remote technology. I'd love to know your opinion. Post your comment on LinkedIn or Twitter? @joycegioia
Special thanks to Marc Rosenblum, Director of Sales for Own Your Money, a business dedicated to helping people eliminate debt, operate more efficiently, and be more successful as entrepreneurs. To read the entire pilot shortage article, visit CNN. If you have a topic to suggest that I may address, please let me know?
Next Week's Herman Trend Alert: Antarctica and Austin Endangered by Stowaway Species
From Zebra Mussels that endanger Austin's waterways to the hitchhikers making their way to Antarctica on exploration and tourist ships, invasive species are endangering formerly pristine areas of the planet. This growing issue is a problem for humans who care about the long-term health of the planet and more specifically, those who want to swim in Austin's lakes.
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