The Herman Trend Alert
September 7, 2022
Extreme Weather Wreaking Havoc
Mother Nature is very angry. Additional CO2 in the atmosphere is causing untold issues for affecting virtually every person on the planet in one way or another. A couple of weeks ago, I was personally affected by the fact the fact that the cruise ship I was sailing on had to skip the port of Torshaven in the Faroe Islands due to high winds and unexpected weather. Then later, it skipped its second port in Greenland when the water was too cold for the ship's desalination system. Changing weather patterns are causing "the best laid plans of men to go astray." In this Alert, I chronicle some of those unanticipated weather events that are happening now and what they mean for the future.
A Marine Heat Wave in Europe
In recent years, the Mediterranean has been subject to powerful warm conditions These incidents have intensified this year; the sea temperatures reached a record 91.4¡F off the coast of Corsica. A marine heatwave is defined as an extended period of relatively abnormal high sea temperatures. In this case. Since the 1980s, these marine heatwaves have doubled in frequency. Sadly, in almost one thousand field surveys, researchers found that 58 percent of them included evidence of the widespread mortality of marine life, and that loss was closely correlated with periods of extreme heat. Marine heatwaves also affect marine traffic
Heat Waves in China, the US, and Elsewhere Have Slammed Economies
Think about it. When there is a serious heatwave, it reduces people's interest in shopping and even going outside; it creates additional physical stress causing some folks to end up in hospitals; and it uses more energy for air conditioners, straining electrical grids.
A Longer Atlantic Hurricane Season
I believe that due to worsening weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will soon expand the official hurricane season in the US from 15-May to 30 November. Not surprisingly, NOAA is also forecasting an "above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season."
Floods Worldwide Destroy Homes and Infrastructure
While droughts in some parts of the world are challenging areas that have not had lack of water problems in a while, recent deadly floods in Pakistan, the US, Australia, and South Africa have attracted the attention of many. Pakistan is experiencing the worst flooding since the 1960s. Torrential rains in five communities, including in Texas, Mississippi, and Kentucky, have been so intense that they were expected just once in a 1000 years; these downpours devastated people, homes, roads, and more. Australia declared a state of emergency after heavy rains soaked parts of southeastern Queensland. And on the continent of Africa, in Uganda and South Africa, severe flooding has caused significant loss of life. In April of this year, days of heavy rains across KwaZulu-Natal in southeastern South Africa led to deadly floods. At least 435 people died across the province, with an untold number of people missing as well. Several thousand homes were damaged or destroyed. As we go to press with this Alert, over 1300 people have perished in Pakistan and about 1/3 of the country is currently under water.
What All of This Means for You:
Below are just a few consequences you may expect in the months and years to come:
Enjoy your Seafood Now, It May Not Be Available in 50 Years
Between overfishing and the destruction of sea life by extreme heat, marine ecosystems are increasingly endangered. Marine scientists have been sounding alarms for years and few have listened.
Increasingly, Severe Hurricanes/Typhoons Threaten North America and SE Asia
As I have written before---and I will reiterate here---the increasing temperatures are warming the water and that causes increased evaporation which creates the building blocks for worsening storms. Until humans stop dumping so much CO2 into the atmosphere, we can expect to have more and more inclement weather---in number and in strength. Besides wreaking havoc on land, these storms will also disrupt travel and tourism, including airlines and cruise lines.
Sea Level Rise Will Endanger Coastal Areas
According to new research by a group of Norwegian scientists, the Arctic is warming four times faster than the rest of the world, and in some areas as much as seven times. Called "Arctic amplification," this effect is well-documented---though this new study finds the region is warming even faster than previously thought.
Airlines and Cruise Lines Will Rethink their Contingency Plans
For years now, it has bothered me a lot that airlines seem to be blindsided by severe weather events. You would think that by now, they would have Plans B and even, C. But with weather events happening more frequently than ever before, they are having to cancel thousands of flights every day. Due to their inaction, in the US, the federal government is stepping in; you may expect similar demands from governments of other developed nations around the world.
Commercial and Residential Buildings Will Be Designed with Greater Resilience
A few weeks ago, I wrote a Herman Trend Alert about Arup and its work on guidelines for creating more resilient homes and commercial buildings. With an increased number of extreme weather events, developers will have no choice but to design buildings that can withstand the additional physical stressors that will be part of our daily lives.
Why I Am Optimistic
We human beings have persisted on the planet because of our ability to adapt. We will learn to adapt to this "new weather normal." The two questions are: First, how long will it take? And second, just how much stress will we have to endure, and how many people will lose their lives in the process?
To reference the articles used to prepare this Herman Trend Alert, visit
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season
https://www.inverse.com/science/arctic-cooling-technology
https://skift.com/2019/09/11/the-rise-and-fall-of-icelands-tourism-miracle/
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=floods+2022&t=chromentp&atb=v314-1&ia=web
Next Week's Herman Trend Alert: Quiet Quitting
They call it "Quiet Quitting." For me, it is really not new, only we used to call it "attending work." It happens when employees are disenchanted with their jobs but choose not to leave either because they are afraid of not being able to find another job that pays as well or because they fear they are "too old" or because they are already working for the company that pays the best in their field/ industry. Whatever the reason, quiet quitting is a major problem for business leaders. This Alert details why it is happening and what employers can and must do to optimize their futures.
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